Lawton, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

823
FXUS64 KOUN 160014
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
714 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 712 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

 - Severe weather is expected Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

 - Above normal temperatures will continue well into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

With a cooler air mass in place and thick cirrus overspreading the
region, temperatures are running much cooler than yesterday (though
still above average). Showers and thunderstorms will continue
through about mid afternoon over southeast Oklahoma. Clouds will
gradually clear out from the northwest.

Quiet night tonight with lows in the 50s (NW OK) to mid 60s (SE OK).

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Friday looks fairly similar to Thursday as another front moves
through the region. Most of the area will be under clear skies,
allowing temperatures to get a bit warmer (highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s). There is a low chance for storms to develop along this
front again in southeast Oklahoma, though most of the CAMs keep this
later in the day and southeast of our forecast area. On the off
chance the front is slower and/or storms fire off earlier, the
atmosphere would support strong to severe storms in the southeast
corner of our forecast area.

The severe risk ramps up on Saturday as a shortwave is forecast to
move across the region and trigger thunderstorms along and east of a
dryline. We`ll also have a retreating warm front and potential
outflow from previous overnight convection as players in this setup.
Instability and deep layer shear will be ample to support severe
hazards, including a low risk for brief tornadoes. Initiation is
expected late afternoon / evening.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Additional rounds of severe weather will continue to be possible
late in the weekend through the early portions of next week as a
longwave mid-level wave meanders to the west, and the subtropical
jet impinges on the southern Plains.

On Sunday, moisture advection will help mid to upper 60s dewpoints
make it to the KS/OK border by the early afternoon. A subtropical
jet maxima will overspread the southern Plains Sunday afternoon and
evening, which may provide the necessary lift for severe
thunderstorm development along a dryline. The parameter space ahead
of the dryline will support severe storms capable of all hazards.

The main forcing is expected to move across the southern Plains
Monday into Tuesday. Severe storms are possible again Monday into
Tuesday morning as the kinematics and thermodynamics will be in
place to support all hazards. With stronger forcing for ascent owing
to the approaching wave, thunderstorm development appears likely at
this time. There are some model solutions that suggest that
additional forcing moves across the area by Tuesday afternoon, which
could extend severe weather chances into Tuesday afternoon. Will
need to monitor these trends as we get into the weekend.

Bunker/Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Light southerly winds will veer to the west and then northwest as
a cold front moves through. Stratus may develop across southeast
Oklahoma tomorrow morning, which will likely impact KDUA.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  87  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         55  88  58  87 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  61  91  63  91 /   0   0   0  30
Gage OK           53  85  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     55  85  54  81 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         67  90  64  89 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...10